In the latest Take 5, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist chat about markets climbing sharply off April lows and discuss what could derail this bull run. From housing weakness to tariff uncertainty, they explore the real risks that could trip the bull. But even as warning signs surface, both remain cautiously optimistic, leaning on diversification and market history to support their outlook.
Key Takeaways
- Tariffs and Trade Tensions Are Back in Focus The duo revisits the evolving tariff landscape—especially with China—and how companies like GM and Ford are already seeking creative workarounds to avoid supply chain disruptions.
- Sticky Inflation Could Keep the Fed on Hold If tariffs push goods inflation higher, the Fed may choose not to cut interest rates in 2025—a shift from earlier market expectations. Elevated rates remain a meaningful risk to the rally.
- Housing Data Is Particularly Weak Higher yields and interest rates continue to drag on housing, making it one of the most fragile sectors in the current environment.
- Diversification Is Still Your Best Friend In a world full of uncertainty, Sonu underscores the power of diversification—especially into international equities, which have quietly outperformed U.S. stocks YTD.
- No Recession? Don’t Be Surprised by More Upside
