Welcome back to Carson’s Take Five with Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist! Live from the New York Stock Exchange, Ryan shares his on-the-ground perspective while Sonu joins remotely to discuss what’s driving today’s market momentum. Togeth …
U.S. GDP fell 32.9% last quarter on an annualized basis. It wasn’t as bad as it looks. Annualizing the data magnifies the decline by assuming the trend will continue for a full year. A better assessment can be gained by comparing GDP to the same quarter last year.
The increased number of COVID-19 cases appears to be pressuring employment in the U.S. Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims rose from 1.3 million to 1.4 million. (See Figure 1.) After slowly declining for weeks, the uptick shows signs of a weakening job market.
Evidence for a sharp, although possibly brief, economic recovery continues to mount. As shown in Figure 1, retail sales rebounded another 7.5% in June and are now 1.1% higher than a year ago. Signs of economic reopening showed up throughout the data released last week.
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Stocks continued to climb in the face of an increasing number of new COVID-19 cases and evidence the surge is stifling the economy’s ability to recover. Initial unemployment claims dipped to 1.3 million, but they have remained above 1 million for 16 consecutive weeks.
I’ve done some google searches on this quote, and even though there are a number of variations of it, no one really knows who said it first. Some credit it to Sir Austen Chamberlain in 1936, but even he said it was told to him by a Chinese diplomat.
